(based on performance at regionals and nationals)
estimated rank // school // estimated points // estimated time // (final result, final NAIA rank)
1 . . Black Hills St. . . 212 . . 2:08:33.13 . . (2, 8)
2 . . Minot State . . 224 . . 2:08:58.66 . . (1, 11)
3 . . Cal St. San Marc . . 231 . . 2:09:45.40 . . (4, 2)
4 . . Malone . . 258 . . 2:09:34.62 . . (5, 5)
5 . . Concordia NE . . 280 . . 2:10:03.23 . . (7, 7)
6 . . Mid-America Naza . . 292 . . 2:09:17.03 . . (8, 9)
7 . . Eastern Oregon . . 306 . . 2:10:26.61 . . (10, 1)
8 . . Azusa Pacific . . 312 . . 2:10:38.09 . . (6, 6)
9 . . British Columbia . . 402 . . 2:10:15.74 . . (9, 14)
10 . . Simon Fraser . . 404 . . 2:10:33.44 . . (3, 4)
11 . . U. of Mary . . 452 . . 2:11:59.20 . . (18, 15)
12 . . Aquinas College . . 462 . . 2:12:01.25 . . (11, 3)
13 . . Cumberland . . 462 . . 2:11:12.96 . . (12, 10)
14 . . Southwestern . . 558 . . 2:12:36.36 . . (14, 13)
15 . . Warner Southern . . 567 . . 2:12:18.79 . . (13, 30)
16 . . Concordia U. (Ca . . 591 . . 2:13:09.77. . (23, 12)
17 . . Berry . . 633 . . 2:13:33.12 . . (16, 17)
18 . . Oklahoma Baptis . . 642 . . 2:13:35.89 . . (15, 21)
19 . . Northwood(Texas) . . 689 . . 2:13:15.79 . . (17, 22)
20 . . Cedarville . . 703 . . 2:14:05.96 . . (19, 18)
21 . . Jamestown Colleg . . 712 . . 2:14:11.09 . . (_, 25)
22 . . Lindenwood Unive . . 745 . . 2:14:25.42
23 . . Alliant Inte . . 776 . . 2:13:41.66 . . (_, 26)
24 . . Shawnee State . . 786 . . 2:14:49.18 . . (22, 16)
25 . . Milligan . . 825 . . 2:15:09.93 . . (21, 27)
26 . . Oklahoma Christi . . 840 . . 2:15:06.59 . . (20, 19)
27 . . Graceland Univer . . 881 . . 2:15:37.64 . . (_, 29)
28 . . Vanguard . . 892 . . 2:15:47.96 . . (_, 28)
29 . . William Jewel Co . . 951 . . 2:15:53.23
30 . . SouthernNazarene . . 967 . . 2:16:03.59 . . (24, _)
31 . . Indiana Wesleyan . . 997 . . 2:16:34.31
32 . . Lewis-Clark . . 1003 . . 2:16:44.17 . . (26, 24)
33 . . Biola . . 1023 . . 2:17:24.13
34 . . Sioux Falls . . 1048 . . 2:16:56.00
35 . . Notre Dame de Na . . 1080 . . 2:17:14.48
36 . . Pt. Loma Nazaren . . 1106 . . 2:17:20.51 . . (_, 23)
37 . . Saint Vincent . . 1116 . . 2:17:34.09
38 . . Walsh . . 1205 . . 2:18:13.46
39 . . Park U. . . 1217 . . 2:17:22.66
40 . . Southern Oregon . . 1224 . . 2:18:15.83
41 . . Siena Heights . . 1230 . . 2:18:10.49
42 . . Berea College . . 1236 . . 2:18:28.69
43 . . Huntington Colle . . 1240 . . 2:18:33.02
44 . . Central Methodis . . 1252 . . 2:18:36.45
45 . . Dana College . . 1300 . . 2:18:58.73
46 . . Grace College . . 1319 . . 2:19:26.34
47 . . Lyndon State(Vt . . 1319 . . 2:19:08.19 . . (27, 20)
48 . . Doane . . 1332 . . 2:18:52.45
49 . . Fresno Pacific . . 1375 . . 2:19:36.33
50 . . Cornerstone . . 1382 . . 2:19:48.47
51 . . Spring Arbor . . 1425 . . 2:19:50.48
52 . . Hastings . . 1507 . . 2:20:38.33
53 . . Mobile(Ala.) . . 1518 . . 2:21:10.89 . . (25, _)
54 . . Taylor . . 1528 . . 2:20:52.85
55 . . Baker University . . 1541 . . 2:21:06.41
56 . . Roberts Wesleyan . . 1642 . . 2:21:40.70
57 . . Geneva . . 1678 . . 2:22:01.82
58 . . Covenant . . 1721 . . 2:22:19.57
59 . . Westmont . . 1762 . . 2:22:40.28
60 . . Bethel (In) . . 1767 . . 2:22:44.52
61 . . Dordt College . . 1767 . . 2:22:46.10
62 . . Olivet Nazarene . . 1770 . . 2:22:54.69 . . (28, _)
63 . . McKendree Colleg . . 1842 . . 2:23:40.13
64 . . Union (Tn) . . 1867 . . 2:23:41.65
65 . . Tri-State . . 1877 . . 2:23:40.86
66 . . Houghton . . 1911 . . 2:23:55.51
67 . . Haskell Indi . . 1948 . . 2:24:13.62
68 . . Hannibal-LaGrang . . 1960 . . 2:26:23.91
69 . . St. Scholastica . . 1986 . . 2:24:30.09
70 . . Cal St. Hayward . . 2031 . . 2:24:53.23
71 . . Warner Pacific . . 2067 . . 2:33:14.05
72 . . Dickinson State . . 2092 . . 2:25:45.65
73 . . South Dakota Tec . . 2096 . . 2:25:29.05
74 . . Ottawa . . 2102 . . 2:26:18.37
75 . . Goshen College . . 2122 . . 2:27:26.21
76 . . Campbellsville . . 2140 . . 2:25:57.80
77 . . Newman . . 2160 . . 2:26:17.36
78 . . Pikeville . . 2204 . . 2:30:16.71
79 . . Dakota Wesleyan . . 2212 . . 2:27:19.74
80 . . Marian (In) . . 2231 . . 2:28:48.80
81 . . Friends . . 2259 . . 2:27:07.66
82 . . Oregon Tech . . 2318 . . 2:27:31.75
83 . . Brevard . . 2369 . . 2:28:39.16
84 . . Missouri Valley . . 2385 . . 2:28:35.20
85 . . The Masters . . 2398 . . 2:28:26.50
86 . . Western Baptist . . 2401 . . 2:29:42.08
87 . . Tabor . . 2494 . . 2:29:44.60
88 . . Midland Lutheran . . 2500 . . 2:40:31.48
89 . . Sterling College . . 2525 . . 2:32:43.68
90 . . Lindsey Wilson . . 2526 . . 2:31:11.48
91 . . Evergreen State . . 2560 . . 2:31:58.06
92 . . Bethany . . 2577 . . 2:32:39.65
93 . . Northwestern (Ia . . 2628 . . 2:32:56.75
94 . . Cal St. Mont . . 2656 . . 2:31:06.46
95 . . Dakota State . . 2721 . . 2:37:22.02
96 . . Westminster (Ut) . . 2829 . . 2:40:10.95
97 . . Bethel5 . . 2925 . . 2:36:55.18
98 . . Daemen . . 2945 . . 2:38:55.90
99 . . Missouri Baptist . . 2965 . . 2:40:57.14
100 . . Freed-Hardeman . . 2970 . . 2:38:26.40
101 . . Georgetown (Ky) . . 2988 . . 2:45:18.45
102 . . Benedictine Coll . . 3011 . . 2:38:01.39
103 . . Lee (Tn) . . 3036 . . 2:37:46.61
104 . . Indiana Southeas . . 3046 . . 2:38:22.04
105 . . Mount Marty . . 3059 . . 2:44:14.82
106 . . Notre Dame . . 3112 . . 2:42:15.09
107 . . Virginia Intermo . . 3161 . . 2:58:03.70
108 . . Cumberland (Tn) . . 3162 . . 2:48:18.34
109 . . King College . . 3255 . . 2:47:09.71
110 . . Tennessee Wesley . . 3289 . . 2:45:40.61
111 . . California Bapti . . 3320 . . 2:49:31.08
112 . . Seton Hill . . 3387 . . 2:48:52.47
113 . . Christian Herita . . 3393 . . 2:50:13.33
114 . . Mid-Continent . . 3404 . . 3:09:32.24
115 . . Bethel (Tn) . . 3405 . . 2:50:42.63
116 . . Point Park . . 3491 . . 3:12:50.09
117 . . Virginia-Wise . . 3582 . . 3:06:55.72
Method: The fact that runners from each of the regions compete together in the nationals allows one to estimate a compensation factor for the various regions. This is done by using a procedure called least squares regression. Using the regression equation estimated for those who competed in both region and national meets, an estimated time for all runners can be computed, at least all runners for whom results were posted. (Only nine regions had results that I could find on the internet.) Some runners did better than their estimated time and others did worse than their estimated time. I used the better of the two times. Although this procedure gives an advantage to those who had both region and national times, it also gives a better estimate of what a runner is capable of. (Why is Shawnee State ranked above Oklahoma Christian even though Oklahoma Christian beat them? Some of the Shawnee runners probably underperformed compared to their region performance, and we cannot estimate if OC runners underperformed because the region results were not posted.)
Using the results for over 700 runners from 117 teams, team scores and estimated team times were computed. Different procedures will give somewhat different results. However, these estimates are probably pretty close to what would happen if this super meet could be held over and over and the results averaged. (There are undoubtedly also some mistakes caused by typos.)
There are a few schools that did not do as well on these estimates as
they did in the national meet. The University of Mobile is an
example. It had some very fast runners, but their last two runners
were near the end of the pack. If we put in all the runners who did
not make it to nationals, those two runners would have very high
scores and would push up Mobile's score. Other teams had a runner or
two who did very well in the region meet and ran poorly at the
national meet, and these results use the better of the two runs to
compute rankings.
The two teams that the rankers probably should have invited to the national meet were, according to these results, Jamestown (which had 4 runners there) and Lindenwood, which got no respect at all from the rankers. But overall they did a good job--all of the top 20 seems to have made it.
There are a number of teams missing from these rankings--those who did not field five runners or more in the region meet, and those teams that did not make nationals that ran in a region meet that that did not want to share the results. It is unfortunate that the NAIA does not make all the region results available on its web site.