Method: Using a statistical procedure called linear regression,
explain state times based on semi-state times and location. This
gives us an equation to predict state times for those who did not go
to state. People who went to state get the better of their state or
semi-state preformances (the later adjusted to predict what it would
have been at state.) These results are then used to compute team
scores. However, I did not take out runners who had an incomplete
team, so scoring is done by place, not score. This inflates scores a
bit. There has been a general sentiment that the FC semistate was by
far the toughest, and these results agree with that.
Why is Chatard third? It is because the results from semistate have a
fourth place finisher who does not run in state. Their fourth place
finisher in state does not run in semistate. Was that what happened,
or are the names on the results screwed up?
Finally, note that these are just estimates based on two meets. If
you take 10% of the score and add it on, that probably gives an upper
bound of where the team belongs. Subtract that ten percent and you
probably have the lower bound of where a team belongs. Teams that are
only separated by a few points are basically even. If a team had a
poor showing at semistate, these rankings will capture that poor
showing and cannot correct for it.
*1 Northridge, 249, 1:24:24.39, (12, 29, 39, 69, 100)
*2 Carmel, 291, 1:24:51.67, (15, 51, 60, 64, 101)
*3 Bishop Chatard, 294.5, 1:25:00.44, (31, 43, 59, 75.5, 86)
*4 Columbus North, 317.5, 1:25:02.88, (21, 38, 54, 97.5, 107)
*5 Franklin Central, 329.5, 1:24:47.13, (7, 32, 77, 78.5, 135)
*6 Snider, 332.5, 1:25:23.69, (40.5, 48, 63, 65, 116)
*7 Hamilton Southeaster, 378, 1:24:39.76, (2, 16, 52.5, 123.5,
184)
*8 PORTAGE, 466.5, 1:26:10.69, (46, 74, 93, 120.5, 133)
9 Southport, 468, 1:25:18.65, (10, 11, 66.5, 177, 203.5)
10 Pendleton Heights, 496, 1:25:19.41, (1, 27, 81, 159, 228)
*11 Elkhart Memorial, 543.5, 1:25:56.03, (13, 44, 47, 205, 234.5)
12 Warren Central, 583, 1:25:49.69, (4, 28, 172.5, 184, 194.5)
*13 CROWN POINT, 607.5, 1:26:50.65, (49, 83, 120.5, 155, 200)
14 Lawrence North, 620, 1:26:44.45, (33, 92, 123.5, 177, 194.5)
*15 JEFFERSON_LAF., 681.5, 1:27:07.52, (58, 83, 131, 197, 212.5)
16 Avon, 689.5, 1:27:17.68, (75.5, 127, 134, 169, 184)
*17 VALPARAISO, 754, 1:27:23.12, (55, 83, 139.5, 229.5, 247)
18 Brownsburg, 787.5, 1:27:36.25, (70, 97.5, 105, 169, 346)
*19 East Noble, 802, 1:26:59.63, (9, 45, 141, 287, 320)
*20 CHESTERTON, 826.5, 1:27:28.07, (22, 136, 206, 229.5, 233)
*21 Blackford, 828, 1:27:26.34, (25, 111, 114, 179, 399)
*22 Bloomington South, 839, 1:27:50.99, (80, 90, 181, 211, 277)
23 Pike, 873, 1:27:13.53, (17, 30, 159, 312, 355)
24 Westfield, 876, 1:27:59.71, (97.5, 112.5, 129.5, 256, 280.5)
*25 Edgewood, 902.5, 1:28:03.59, (61, 109, 155, 234.5, 343)
26 Northrop, 952, 1:27:43.98, (6, 150, 246, 260, 290)
*27 Bloomington North, 955, 1:27:55.51, (18, 167, 171, 284, 315)
28 West Noble, 1003, 1:28:36.15, (119, 166, 201, 225, 292)
29 Dekalb, 1042.5, 1:28:48.95, (157, 190.5, 210, 214, 271)
*30 Heritage Hills, 1072, 1:28:47.22, (118, 126, 232, 293, 303)
31 Marion, 1110, 1:28:28.57, (26, 72, 298, 304, 410)
32 Center Grove, 1115, 1:29:08.14, (123.5, 169, 177, 220.5, 425)
33 North Side, 1165, 1:29:10.16, (102, 236, 240, 271, 316)
*34 Evansville Mater Dei, 1167, 1:29:02.76, (90, 90, 278.5, 321.5,
387)
35 Bishop Dwenger, 1214, 1:29:23.46, (137, 219, 248, 253, 357)
36 Huntington North, 1243, 1:29:26.78, (128, 174, 271, 291, 379)
37 Norwell, 1249.5, 1:29:31.28, (146, 227, 238, 275.5, 363)
38 Roncalli, 1259.5, 1:29:35.50, (151.5, 188.5, 241.5, 297, 381)
39 west Lafayette, 1282, 1:29:17.18, (23, 68, 313.5, 341.5, 536)
40 Floyd Central, 1357, 1:30:04.34, (138, 193, 207.5, 349, 469.5)
41 Zionsville, 1362.5, 1:29:54.08, (94, 241.5, 245, 375, 407)
42 Oak Hill, 1375.5, 1:30:03.93, (87, 143, 275.5, 377, 493)
43 LOWELL, 1416.5, 1:30:03.42, (95, 196, 361, 366.5, 398)
44 Rushville, 1464.5, 1:30:16.56, (35, 163, 359.5, 392, 515)
45 MERRILLVILLE, 1529.5, 1:30:45.45, (115, 139.5, 352.5, 455.5,
467)
46 Terre Haute South, 1549.5, 1:30:38.55, (258, 295, 309.5, 338,
349)
47 PENN, 1558.5, 1:30:44.48, (110, 282.5, 324.5, 415, 426.5)
48 Mt.vernon(posey), 1602.5, 1:30:54.02, (56, 305.5, 349, 391,
501)
49 Carroll, 1606, 1:30:53.29, (162, 267, 374, 394, 409)
50 HARRISON, 1640, 1:31:03.77, (78.5, 335, 340, 431, 455.5)
51 LA PORTE, 1704, 1:31:17.73, (36, 331.5, 421.5, 441, 474)
52 Evansville North, 1747.5, 1:31:35.24, (207.5, 262, 395, 400,
483)
53 ANDREAN, 1750, 1:31:37.26, (164, 324.5, 341.5, 404, 516)
54 Brown County, 1755.5, 1:31:30.36, (278.5, 288.5, 328.5, 387,
473)
55 NEW PRAIRIE, 1769.5, 1:31:37.26, (217.5, 352.5, 356, 417,
426.5)
56 MUNSTER, 1785, 1:31:49.97, (212.5, 251.5, 408, 442, 471)
57 North Posey, 1792, 1:31:59.68, (132, 250, 380, 501, 529)
58 Columbia City, 1793.5, 1:31:40.50, (190.5, 365, 383, 401, 454)
59 Batesville, 1810, 1:32:19.72, (151.5, 220.5, 330, 550, 558)
60 New Albany, 1810, 1:31:58.83, (57, 309.5, 458.5, 484, 501)
61 Evansville Central, 1813, 1:32:23.14, (198, 262, 269, 509,
575)
62 Richmond, 1816, 1:31:56.33, (224, 311, 354, 439, 488)
63 Mitchell, 1843.5, 1:32:11.41, (215, 285.5, 305.5, 514, 523.5)
64 Muncie South, 1942, 1:32:32.40, (186, 362, 405, 443, 546)
65 Northeast Dubois, 1950, 1:32:44.95, (73, 321.5, 469.5, 530,
556)
66 Seymour, 1962.5, 1:32:38.69, (34, 406, 458.5, 497, 567)
67 culver Academy, 1970.5, 1:33:09.38, (37, 299, 489.5, 568, 577)
68 Columbus East, 1975, 1:32:40.24, (264, 300, 403, 460, 548)
69 Wapahani, 1999, 1:32:28.39, (373, 376, 385, 432, 433)
70 Silver Creek, 2011, 1:32:36.82, (328.5, 402, 413, 416, 451.5)
71 Muncie Central, 2033, 1:32:53.61, (244, 384, 447, 477, 481)
72 MISHAWAKA, 2047, 1:32:50.57, (331.5, 366.5, 372, 434, 543)
73 Bedford North Lawren, 2098, 1:33:16.90, (262, 419, 440, 444,
533)
74 ROCHESTER, 2181.5, 1:33:36.51, (301, 393, 421.5, 526.5, 539.5)
75 Southwestern(hanover, 2190.5, 1:34:14.57, (255, 358, 413, 578.5,
586)
76 kankakee Valley, 2271.5, 1:34:18.54, (302, 318, 544.5, 553.5,
553.5)
77 carroll(flora), 2275, 1:34:26.36, (251.5, 445.5, 486.5, 511.5,
580)
78 East Central, 2305.5, 1:34:32.65, (317, 396.5, 480, 520, 592)
79 Jeffersonville, 2339.5, 1:36:18.71, (202, 344.5, 570, 603,
620)
80 st. Joseph_S.b., 2771, 1:37:09.60, (517, 544.5, 553.5, 574,
582)